Background— Vigorous exertion and endurance training have been reported to increase atrial fibrillation (AF). Associations of habitual light or moderate activity with AF incidence have not been evaluated.

Methods and Results— We prospectively investigated associations of leisure-time activity, exercise intensity, and walking habits, assessed at baseline and updated during follow-up visits, with incident AF, diagnosed by annual 12-lead ECGs and hospital discharge records, from 1989 to 2001 among 5446 adults ≥65 years of age in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During 47 280 person-years of follow-up, 1061 new AF cases occurred (incidence 22.4/1000 person-years). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, leisure-time activity was associated with lower AF incidence in a graded manner, with 25% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61 to 0.90), 22% (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.95), and 36% (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.79) lower risk in quintiles 3, 4, and 5 versus quintile 1 (P for trend <0.001). Exercise intensity had a U-shaped relationship with AF (quadratic P=0.02): Versus no exercise, AF incidence was lower with moderate-intensity exercise (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.89) but not with high-intensity exercise (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.19). Walking distance and pace were each associated with lower AF risk in a graded manner (P for trend <0.001); when we assessed the combined effects of distance and pace, individuals in quartiles 2, 3, and 4 had 25% (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.99), 32% (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.92), and 44% (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.82) lower AF incidence than individuals in quartile 1. Findings appeared unrelated to confounding by comorbidity or indication. After evaluation of cut points of moderate leisure-time activity (≈600 kcal/week), walking distance (12 blocks per week), and pace (2 mph), 26% of all new AF cases (95% CI 7% to 43%) appeared attributable to absence of these activities.

Conclusions— Light to moderate physical activities, particularly leisure-time activity and walking, are associated with significantly lower AF incidence in older adults.